In-depth Analysis of Vietnam's Energy Strategy: Green Transformation and Investment Opportunities under the PDP8 Plan

In April 2025, the Vietnamese government officially implemented the revised "National Power Development Plan Version 8" (PDP8), marking the execution phase of Southeast Asia's most ambitious energy transition plan. The plan commits to an investment of $136.3 billion by 2030, aiming to increase the share of renewable energy capacity from 27% in 2023 to over 50% by 2030, and for the first time incorporates nuclear energy into the national energy structure. This report systematically analyzes the strategic path and industrial impact of Vietnam's energy transition from three dimensions: policy framework, electricity pricing mechanism, and international cooperation.

1.1 Installed Capacity and Energy Structure Reshaping

Total target: By 2030, the total installed capacity will reach 236GW (an increase of 112% compared to 2022), of which:

Solar energy: 59GW (accounting for 25.1%), becoming the largest power source

Wind power: 21GW (onshore 18GW + offshore 3GW), commercial launch of offshore wind power in 2035

Nuclear Energy: 4-6.4GW (The first phase project is supported by the technology of the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation)

Coal power: 39.8GW (accounting for 16.9%, a decrease of 12 percentage points compared to 2023)

1.2 Cross-Border Electricity Trade Strategy

Regional Export: Build the "ASEAN Power Corridor," achieving 5-10GW of clean power export by 2035 (mainly targeting Singapore and Malaysia)

Infrastructure: Expand the 500kV North-South Transmission Corridor, increase cross-border interconnection capacity to 3GW

2.1 Differentiated Pricing for Solar Power Generation (Decision No. 988 of MOIT)

Energy Storage Premium: Power plants with a 10% capacity energy storage system enjoy a 13.7% electricity price increase (e.g., southern ground power plants from 1,012→1,149 VND/kWh)

Regional coefficient: Northern electricity prices are 36.6% higher than those in the southern region, compensating for the lower irradiance area's revenue.

2.2 Natural Gas Power Generation Cost Transmission Mechanism

Pricing formula: 3,069.38 VND/kWh cap based on Brent crude oil scenario designed at 60 USD/barrel, including exchange rate linkage clause (25,670 VND/USD pegged)

Risk buffer: The electricity price adjustment mechanism is activated when natural gas price fluctuations exceed ±15%.

2.3 Implementation Challenges

Foreign investment concerns: Mismatch between dollar-denominated investments and electricity revenue in Vietnamese dong (2024 VND annual volatility reaches 8.2%)

Energy storage economics: The current system cost ($280/kWh) needs to decrease by 30% to meet the IRR requirements.

3.1 2.3GW Cross-Border Wind Power Project (Bac Lieu Province)

Technical route: Use 18MW offshore wind turbines, matched with a 500MW/1,000MWh energy storage system

Trading model: Sign the first cross-border PPA in ASEAN, implement the "green electricity price premium" mechanism (22% higher than local electricity prices in Vietnam)

3.2 Nuclear Talent Development

The Hungarian government's funded nuclear energy training program will cover:

Reactor Safety (in accordance with IAEA SSR-2/1 standards)

Spent Fuel Management

Grid Frequency Regulation Technology

4.1 Key Opportunities

Device requirements: An additional 48GW of photovoltaic modules and 9.6GWh of energy storage systems are needed from 2025 to 2030.

Service Market: The scale of nuclear power plant operation and maintenance training is expected to reach 250 million USD.

4.2 Risk Warning

Policy implementation: Delays in the issuance of Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) may affect project cash flow.

Technical Standards: The ASEAN power grid interconnection lacks unified grid connection specifications.

Vietnam's energy transition presents the characteristic of "three speeds running in parallel":

Data source: Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, ASEAN Centre for Energy, Wood Mackenzie Asia-Pacific Power Report